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July 6, 2012 - Finally a Storm

Location:

Scott County, MN

Target:

Glencoe, MN

Tornadoes:

0

Miles:

60


Prev  
There was a slight risk for severe weather in MN today. A vigorous warm front was sitting across central MN with a cold front expected to pass through in the evening. With temps above 100, there was a question as to how much of a tornado threat would unfold but nonetheless they but a 5% across central MN.

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Around 5 storms started firing across central MN. I would have loved to jump on them right then but the dishwasher repairman was still at our house so I patiently waited for him to finish. When he was done, Kelly and I jumped in the car and headed toward Glencoe towards what appeared to be a nice looking storm. As we were driving down McColl street to get onto 169, I saw a nice looking storm just to the northwest.

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This was hidden by the radar site so I hadnít noticed it but it looked decent so we decided to stop. It actually a developed a decent looking wall cloud but after about 5 minutes it evaporated so we headed down 169 towards the cell near Glencoe.

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As we got closer it was obvious that this storm was going to crap also so we called it quits near New Prague and headed home. Overall I was just happy to see a storm as I hadnít seen one since the Nebraska bust at the beginning of May
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Outlook


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SPC Text


SPC AC 060556 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 AM CDT FRI JUL 06 2012 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT... ...SYNOPSIS... AN EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY. WEAK SHORT WAVE IMPULSE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SHOULD BECOME CENTERED NEAR THE MN/ONTARIO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NWD IN THE UPPER MIDWEST...BEFORE STALLING ACROSS CNTRL MN TO NRN WI. TRAILING PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL DROP SWD AS A COLD FRONT IN THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WILL APPROACH QUEBEC...WITH A WARM FRONT ADVANCING EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND. ...UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ELEVATED TSTMS WILL BE ONGOING THIS MORNING WITHIN A ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...INTENSE DIABATIC WARMING WILL OCCUR PUSHING SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S TO NEAR 102. THIS SHOULD YIELD A WELL-MIXED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE BENEATH RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES AROUND 700 MB...RESULTING IN WEAK CAPPING AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...WITH A RICH MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS PRESENT IN A BAND ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT AND SAMPLED BY THE 00Z GRB RAOB...IT IS PROBABLE THAT A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONG BUOYANCY WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ALONG AND JUST N OF THE FRONT. TSTMS MAY EVOLVE OUT OF THE MORNING ACTIVITY...AND/OR DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. PARALLELING BELT OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL WLYS WILL LARGELY REMAIN CONFINED WELL N OF THE BOUNDARY. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SHOULD UNDERCUT ANY FURTHER NWD ADVANCEMENT OF THE FRONT BY EVENING. BUT FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS FOR SUPERCELLS COULD YIELD POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WITH INITIAL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING DEVELOPMENT IN CNTRL MN TO NWRN WI. OTHERWISE...THIS SETUP SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW E/SEWD EVOLVING CLUSTERS WITH PRIMARY RISKS OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL...PERHAPS REACHING AS FAR E AS LOWER MI BY SAT MORNING. ...SOUTHEAST... LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO THU. BUT AFTER ABUNDANT CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING ON THU AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND THE LACK OF AN UPSTREAM MCV RIDING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT A REPEAT OF NUMEROUS SEVERE TSTMS WILL OCCUR TODAY. HOWEVER...DIABATIC WARMING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL AGAIN CONTRIBUTE TO WIDELY SCATTERED PULSE TSTMS WITHIN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. CONGEALING CELLS COULD YIELD A FEW LOOSELY-ORGANIZED CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND BRIEF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... DEEP MIXING WILL OCCUR WITHIN A ZONE OF STRONG DIABATIC WARMING SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHERE A FEW HIGH BASED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND WY WITHIN A POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME AND SPREAD NEWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ...NRN/WRN NEW ENGLAND... ON THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC...TSTMS SHOULD FORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITHIN A ZONE OF MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WAA. WITH A RESIDUAL WARM LAYER ALOFT...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE POOR...YIELDING ONLY MODEST DESTABILIZATION. BUT WITH STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK COULD DEVELOP INTO THE CONUS FROM QUEBEC. ..GRAMS/ROGERS.. 07/06/2012 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

Outlook


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SPC AC 061213 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0713 AM CDT FRI JUL 06 2012 VALID 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ME... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE PRIMARY BAND OF WESTERLIES ALOFT EXTENDING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER FROM WA/ID/MT INTO NEW ENGLAND. SEVERAL AREAS WILL SEE A RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. ...UPPER MIDWEST... A LARGE MCS IS ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN ND. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS THAT LIES FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO SD. WHILE AN ISOLATED WIND GUST WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...STRONG HEATING WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO CENTRAL WI. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A TORNADO OR TWO IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE WARM FRONT THIS EVENING. STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO A BOW AND SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARDS LOWER MI LATE TONIGHT. ...NORTHERN MAINE... SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS OCCURRING THIS MORNING OVER MAINE. HOWEVER...INCREASING MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC. THE HIGHEST RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NORTHWEST OF MAINE OVER EASTERN QUEBEC...MOVING INTO MAINE AROUND SUNSET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER WEAK...BUT STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFT/DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... RELATIVELY WEAK EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ON THURSDAY APPEARS TO HAVE GREATLY DIMINISHED THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TODAY. NEVERTHELESS...A FEW OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT OF WET MICROBURSTS OR HAIL. ..HART/COHEN.. 07/06/2012 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

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SPC AC 061611 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1111 AM CDT FRI JUL 06 2012 VALID 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPR MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER FAR NRN MAINE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH AND LWR MS VLY... ...UPR MIDWEST... HEALTHY NOCTURNAL MCS HAS DIURNALLY WEAKENED OVER NRN MN WITH ONLY REMAINING STRONG CONVECTION OF ELEVATED VARIETY ACROSS THE UPR GRTLKS REGION. DESPITE BEING ELEVATED...GUSTY WINDS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED WITH ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS NERN MN AND LKSUP REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTN. LATER THIS AFTN...A CHALLENGING FCST HAS UNFOLDED. AS MID/UPR LVL CLOUD CANOPY FROM EARLY MCS THINS/DIMINISHES...VERY STRONG LLVL HEATING WILL COMMENCE ALONG/S OF AN E-W ORIENTED FRONT ACROSS ERN SD INTO WI. MORNING SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WARMING WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE H7-H5 LAYER...FURTHER COMPLICATING MATTERS AS CINH LIKELY INCREASES. IN FACT...LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND SREF GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT ANY STORM INITIATION WILL LIKELY BE N OF THE FRONT WITH LITTLE IF ANYTHING FORMING IN THE WARM SECTOR. AS A RESULT...THIS OUTLOOK HAS TRIMMED ALONG SRN EDGE OF ONGOING SLIGHT RISK. BUT...OUTLOOK WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A SMALL PROBABILITY OF TSTMS DEVELOPING S OF THE FRONT. IF THIS OCCURS...UPSCALE GROWTH INTO BOWS AND LEWPS WITH DMGG WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO COULD OCCUR. THESE STORMS WOULD REACH THE CNTRL GRTLKS LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...AT A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITY...STORMS DEVELOPING N OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND WIND SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS. ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO BACKBUILD SWWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT TOWARD SFC LOW PRESSURE IN SERN SD DURING THE EVENING WITH SIMILAR SVR RISKS AND EWD INTO THE UPR GRTLKS REGION OVERNIGHT. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... RELATIVELY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AND MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HIGH-BASED TSTMS OVER NERN CO AND SWRN NEB LATER THIS AFTN/EVE. STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM INTO MULTICELL CLUSTERS GIVING AT LEAST ISOLD DMGG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. A SMALL AND LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS WITH DECREASING SEVERE TRENDS WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE LWR NEB PLAINS OVERNIGHT. ...SRN/SERN STATES... THIS OUTLOOK UPDATE WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT RISK UPGRADE FOR DMGG WINDS/HAIL ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE AR...LA AND SWRN MS. 12Z DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGEST THAT RELATIVELY COLD POCKET ALOFT /MINUS 8 DEG C AT H5/ HAD ADVECTED SWWD ATOP PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES OVER PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH/LWR MS VLY. WHILE ISOLD TSTMS WITH HYBRID/WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT RANDOM LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR ERN CAROLINAS AND SRN GA...A MORE ORGANIZED DOWNBURST THREAT MAY BE EVOLVING ALONG WRN FRINGE OF A SUB-SYNOPTIC ENTITY IN SWRN/CNTRL MS /WHERE ENELY MID-LVL FLOW IS SOMEWHAT ENHANCED/. HERE...FCST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT A STEEP LAPSE RATE FROM SFC-500 MB AND WITH FURTHER COOLING ALOFT/HEATING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...STRONG MULTICELLS MAY YIELD A FEW DMGG HYBRID/WET MICROBURSTS AND HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE WSW INTO PARTS OF SERN AR AND LA THIS EVE BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH SUNSET. ...NRN ME... H5 ANALYSIS PLACES NEW ENGLAND WITHIN A LARGE SCALE RIDGE AXIS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...BY LATE THIS AFTN/EVE...A MID-LVL TROUGH OVER CNTRL QUEBEC WILL ROTATE INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VLY...WITH IT/S GLANCING INFLUENCE PASSING BY NRN ME. 12Z CAR SOUNDING CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WERE NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT UPSTREAM MANIWAKI QUEBEC DATA EXHIBITS SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND STRONGER WNW FLOW REGIME. EXPECT A FEW TSTMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN OVER CNTRL QUEBEC NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE AND THEN AFFECT PARTS OF NRN ME THIS EVE. THERMO/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENTS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF FAST MOVING LINE SEGMENTS BY EVENING WITH DMGG WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY PRECLUDES A WIDESPREAD EVENT. ..RACY/GARNER.. 07/06/2012 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

Outlook


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SPC Text


SPC AC 062004 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0304 PM CDT FRI JUL 06 2012 VALID 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EASTERN SD EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF MN...WI...AND LOWER MI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NORTHERN LA/MUCH OF MS NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN TN/NORTHWEST AL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NORTHERN ME... CHANGES TO THE 20Z OUTLOOK INCLUDE A NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE SLIGHT RISK INTO WESTERN TN/NORTHWEST AL. A CLUSTER OF TSTMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN AN AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 3000 J/KG. REF MCD 1418 FOR THE LATEST THINKING ON SHORT-TERM TRENDS IN THIS AREA. THE 5 PERCENT WIND PROBABILITIES WERE EXTENDED INTO SOUTHERN MO WHERE TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED AS A RESULT OF VERY STRONG HEATING. GIVEN THE LARGE TEMP-DEW POINT SPREADS...THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE 5 PERCENT WIND PROBABILITIES SOUTHWARD OVER NORTHERN IND WHERE ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED. ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY DEVELOP IN A VERY UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED AIR MASS IN PROXIMITY TO EASTWARD-MOVING LAKE BREEZE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. HAVE KEPT THE UPPER MIDWEST SLIGHT RISK INTACT AS LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SUGGEST CU FIELD IS BECOMING BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER EASTERN SD/WEST-CENTRAL MN. ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SVR TSTMS GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR IN PLACE AS DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS OUTLOOK. ..BUNTING.. 07/06/2012 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT FRI JUL 06 2012/ ...UPR MIDWEST... HEALTHY NOCTURNAL MCS HAS DIURNALLY WEAKENED OVER NRN MN WITH ONLY REMAINING STRONG CONVECTION OF ELEVATED VARIETY ACROSS THE UPR GRTLKS REGION. DESPITE BEING ELEVATED...GUSTY WINDS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED WITH ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS NERN MN AND LKSUP REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTN. LATER THIS AFTN...A CHALLENGING FCST HAS UNFOLDED. AS MID/UPR LVL CLOUD CANOPY FROM EARLY MCS THINS/DIMINISHES...VERY STRONG LLVL HEATING WILL COMMENCE ALONG/S OF AN E-W ORIENTED FRONT ACROSS ERN SD INTO WI. MORNING SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WARMING WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE H7-H5 LAYER...FURTHER COMPLICATING MATTERS AS CINH LIKELY INCREASES. IN FACT...LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND SREF GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT ANY STORM INITIATION WILL LIKELY BE N OF THE FRONT WITH LITTLE IF ANYTHING FORMING IN THE WARM SECTOR. AS A RESULT...THIS OUTLOOK HAS TRIMMED ALONG SRN EDGE OF ONGOING SLIGHT RISK. BUT...OUTLOOK WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A SMALL PROBABILITY OF TSTMS DEVELOPING S OF THE FRONT. IF THIS OCCURS...UPSCALE GROWTH INTO BOWS AND LEWPS WITH DMGG WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO COULD OCCUR. THESE STORMS WOULD REACH THE CNTRL GRTLKS LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...AT A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITY...STORMS DEVELOPING N OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND WIND SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS. ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO BACKBUILD SWWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT TOWARD SFC LOW PRESSURE IN SERN SD DURING THE EVENING WITH SIMILAR SVR RISKS AND EWD INTO THE UPR GRTLKS REGION OVERNIGHT. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... RELATIVELY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AND MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HIGH-BASED TSTMS OVER NERN CO AND SWRN NEB LATER THIS AFTN/EVE. STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM INTO MULTICELL CLUSTERS GIVING AT LEAST ISOLD DMGG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. A SMALL AND LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS WITH DECREASING SEVERE TRENDS WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE LWR NEB PLAINS OVERNIGHT. ...SRN/SERN STATES... THIS OUTLOOK UPDATE WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT RISK UPGRADE FOR DMGG WINDS/HAIL ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE AR...LA AND SWRN MS. 12Z DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGEST THAT RELATIVELY COLD POCKET ALOFT /MINUS 8 DEG C AT H5/ HAD ADVECTED SWWD ATOP PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES OVER PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH/LWR MS VLY. WHILE ISOLD TSTMS WITH HYBRID/WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT RANDOM LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR ERN CAROLINAS AND SRN GA...A MORE ORGANIZED DOWNBURST THREAT MAY BE EVOLVING ALONG WRN FRINGE OF A SUB-SYNOPTIC ENTITY IN SWRN/CNTRL MS /WHERE ENELY MID-LVL FLOW IS SOMEWHAT ENHANCED/. HERE...FCST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT A STEEP LAPSE RATE FROM SFC-500 MB AND WITH FURTHER COOLING ALOFT/HEATING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...STRONG MULTICELLS MAY YIELD A FEW DMGG HYBRID/WET MICROBURSTS AND HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE WSW INTO PARTS OF SERN AR AND LA THIS EVE BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH SUNSET. ...NRN ME... H5 ANALYSIS PLACES NEW ENGLAND WITHIN A LARGE SCALE RIDGE AXIS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...BY LATE THIS AFTN/EVE...A MID-LVL TROUGH OVER CNTRL QUEBEC WILL ROTATE INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VLY...WITH IT/S GLANCING INFLUENCE PASSING BY NRN ME. 12Z CAR SOUNDING CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WERE NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT UPSTREAM MANIWAKI QUEBEC DATA EXHIBITS SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND STRONGER WNW FLOW REGIME. EXPECT A FEW TSTMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN OVER CNTRL QUEBEC NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE AND THEN AFFECT PARTS OF NRN ME THIS EVE. THERMO/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENTS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF FAST MOVING LINE SEGMENTS BY EVENING WITH DMGG WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY PRECLUDES A WIDESPREAD EVENT. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1420 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0602 PM CDT FRI JUL 06 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...CNTRL/SWRN MN...NWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 062302Z - 062330Z CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN SD...SWRN/CNTRL MN...AND INTO NWRN WI. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSIS FROM 22Z PLACES A SFC LOW OVER SERN SD...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING WSW-ENE ACROSS SWRN AND CNTRL MN. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A CU FIELD DEVELOPING WSW OF RWF...WHILE MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IS POSITIONED N OF THE FRONT ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS. STRONG HEATING S OF THE FRONT WITHIN A MOISTURE-RICH BOUNDARY LAYER /I.E. DEW POINTS IN THE 70S/ HAS ALLOWED A CORRIDOR OF STRONG INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP...WITH MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG IN CNTRL MN...DESPITE A WARM MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILE OVER THIS AREA. CONVERGENCE AND STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ALONG THE FRONT HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO OVERCOME WEAK CINH THUS FAR...BUT WITH CU FIELD BECOMING BETTER DEFINED WITHIN THE PAST HR...THE POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED STORMS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE DEGREE OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PRESENT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE EXHIBITING SOME CLOCKWISE TURNING WITH HEIGHT...THOUGH HOT TEMPERATURES AND LCL HEIGHTS AOA 2.5 KM SHOULD LIMIT THIS THREAT SOMEWHAT. N OF THE FRONT...WEAK WAA COULD CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING COVERAGE OF ELEVATED TSTMS THROUGH THE NEXT 2-3 HRS. THE PRIMARY THREAT ACCOMPANYING THIS ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY BE LARGE HAIL...AS INCREASING MIDLEVEL FLOW WITH NWD EXTENT SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS. ..ROGERS/CORFIDI.. 07/06/2012 ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... LAT...LON 45769038 45509061 44819276 44079504 43579650 43109703 42879754 42959822 43249834 44789659 45389630 45869604 46329487 46549360 46679201 46699132 46499059 45769038